About that North Pole ice cap

It has been in the news of late that the North Pole ice cap has shrunk to the smallest size ever recorded. The previous minimum was in 2007.

Climate change denialists maintain that it is just normal variation and if you look at maps of the North Pole from the 1920s, 30s and 40s, the size of ice cap was similarly small. Indeed, the extent of the ice cap did hit a minimum in 1938 based on those maps.

Thankfully the Artic Sea Ice Blog went over those maps and the latest satellite images and pointed out that the extent of the ice cap now is still much smaller than it was in the old maps.  But the comments were even better since one of the commentators pointed to this map that overlays the satellite data on the 1938 map:

One needs to be careful when comparing the current maps, which are more accurate in both space and time, with the older maps which the reflect the more limited ability people had to observe the North Pole ice cap.

Even still, it makes the point quite vividly, doesn't it?

Organizing a CryptoParty in Somerville, wanna help?

I am working with others to hold a CryptoParty on Sunday, Oct. 21 from noon-6pm. It will be held at The Sprouts, 339R Summer St., Somerville near Davis Square and the Davis Square MBTA stop.
We are planning to hold hands-on workshops on topics such as:

  • Using Tor and the Tor Browser Bundle
  • PGP/GnuPG key generation & use
  • Using Truecrypt and LUKS
  • Using SSL and authentication
  • Using VPNs

You can find out more at the Boston CryptoParty wiki page. If you are interested in participating or want to help teach on one of the topics, please contact me via twitter, email jokeefe@jamesokeefe.org or call/txt (617) 863-0385.

As PBS extolls arbitrage, is wealth looting next?

I didn't intend to have my next post focus on arbitrage and rentiers, but as I prepared to deal with several items I have put off in favor of sleeping the last few days, I just couldn't resist.

Last night, my wife was watching Market Warriors, a PBS show that seems to have been spun off from Antiques Roadshow. Various intermediate buyers/sellers comb flea markets and try to get the best price they can on the antiques they buy so in order to sell them at auction for a higher price. They have various constraints they have to abide by. In between the haggling, the narrator makes comments on the buying/selling process, negotiations and something about the items the participants have chosen.

They should have just called the show Arbitrage, as striped of the commentary, that is all the participants are doing. As they Marxists' M-C-M' equation says, they are using money to buy commodities to make more money. Watching stock or bond traders negotiate their deals would have been far more exciting and illuminating about the inner purpose of financial capitalism.

Which brings me to the latest Q&A with Michael Hudson about his book The Bubble and Beyond: Fictitious Capital, Debt Deflation and Global Crisis. In the Q&A, he ties the huge debts (especially private debts) we have developed since 1980, with the increasing amount of money the financial sector is siphoning off from the goods economy. The following excerpt summarizes our current march on the road to debt servitude:

But instead of supporting productive industry by extending credit to increase tangible capital investment, the banking system has extended credit mainly (about 80 percent in the United States and most English-speaking countries) to buy real estate and load it down with debt. The result is that rental income is used to pay interest to the banks rather than to pay taxes. This forces governments to tax wages, profits and sales. That increases the cost of living and doing business, on top of the interest charge.

In search of this loan market, banks have come to back untaxing real estate and deregulating monopolies, so that their economic rent can be paid to the banks as interest by customers eager buy these rights – and charge even higher rents or raise prices even further without making a new capital investment of their own. Instead of financing industry, U.S. banks don’t make loans for what can be produced in the future. They make loans against collateral already in place – including entire companies with high-interest “junk” bonds. The target company is obliged to pay the debt that the corporate raider takes on. The raider then is “free” to downsize and outsource the work force, squeeze the budget and hope to come out with a capital gain after paying off the banks and bondholders. The process is more extractive than productive.

While the financial industry has led the way in extracting economic rents from their customers and other sectors of the economy, other sectors are catching up.  Increasingly we see patents being used to extract economic rents, whether with the Apple-Samsung ruling or with patent trolls, rather than by actually innovating and creating more useful products. 

With artbitrage covered, perhaps PBS will come up with a new show that extolls the virtues of rent seeking.  I think Wealthy Looters would be a good title.

The question for us, though, is whether we want an economy that encourages invovation and spreading the wealth we all create as widely as possible or whether we want a rentier tollbooth economy controlled and milked by the wealthy.

UPDATED: 2007 State, Local & Federal Tax Rates by Income

A while ago I put together a spreadsheet of the tax rates that people at different income classes paid and kept meaning to post it once I looked at similar data from the 1950s or 1960s, when the actual tax rates that the wealthy paid were much higher.  However, with the latest Romney clandestine video, it seemed a fitting time to post it.

The data is from 2007 and it includes Federal, State and Local taxes.  My sources were:

You can find my google spreadsheet with all of the numbers (as well as some extrapolations if you remove certain tax breaks) here.  I had to do some calculations to break out some of the higher income ranges for the Federal data, but the computations are pretty straightforward.

Before I go to the charts, a bit of commentary.  

State taxes, especially sales and property, are regressive and that helps to skew the taxes so the poor pay more and the wealthy less.  Some states have a high enough income tax to offset that disparity, but many states do not have an income tax, or have a flat tax, such Massachusetts.

FICA (Social Security, Medicare, etc.) taxes are payroll taxes that only apply to wage income, but the total amount a tax payer has to pay is capped at $110,100 of income (as of 2012).  However, the Earned Income Tax Credit helps to offset the FICA taxes and you can see that from the Federal tax rate chart below where income tax rates are negative for those earning less than $18,000.  Also, the long-term capital gains taxes are paid at a flat rate that is not progressive, unlike Federal income taxes which rise with the income of the tax payer.

These issues, as well as others, ensure that the tax rates the wealthy pay are not that much higher than someone in the middle class.  

On to the summary charts.

State, Local & Federal Tax Rate by Income Range

State & Local Tax Rate by Income Range

Federal Tax Rate by Income Range


UPDATE

I see via Ezra Klein (via friends on Facebook) that Citizens for Tax Justice already has this info in a summary form for 2011. I'll poke around and see if they have the rates for the 1950s and 1960s.

  

How to kill standalone social networks

Yasssu has an interesting interview with Eben Moglen about a variety of topics including government surveillance, privacy, and sharing:

The topic that drew my attention to the video was his contention that Facebook would only last for about ten years before the open web and open alternatives to it won out. He cites Diaspora, GNU Social and other efforts as the tools that are leading the way to that change and I generally agree with him. However, the flaw I see with that approach is that the variety of social services that are available is increasing at a rate that a canned aggregation service will not be able to keep up. What is needed is an api for:

  1. who is your friend or who you follow and thus who you trust;
  2. the different services to share updates you make on the service;
  3. the different services to talk to talk to an aggregator.

Item 1 can leverage OpenId and OAuth and there are projects such as Portable Contacts, DiSo, FOAF and XHTML Friends Network that can be built upon (or rebuilt) to provide the secure social connection information.
Item 2 requires a defined api and a willingness for social services to support it. However, RSS is pretty prevalent, so building off of that shouldn’t be a complete jump into the dark.
I am not convinced that Item 3 is desirable even on a local level. Rather, the only thing I think we need to host is our public and private connection information. Once we have that information, it would be possible to use a javascript browser plug in that pulls in our connection information and builds a status page of what our friends are doing.
With these tools in place, we won’t need Facebook, Google+ or other specific social network services to act as a man in the middle to our social lives on the net.
I do like his suggestion that we all have our own plugin computers running a server like FreedomBox that act as VPN, host our website, etc.
He touches on a wide variety of other points that I find useful and his quotes are direct and pithy, so please to take the time to watch it.

On prophecies

“Among other things which they remembered in their distress was, very naturally, the following verse which the old men said had long ago been uttered:

“A Dorian war shall come and with it death.”
[Book 2, Chapter 54, Section 2]

So a dispute arose as to whether dearth and not death had not been the word in the verse; but at the present juncture, it was of course decided in favor of the latter; for the people made their recollection fit in with their sufferings [from the plague]. I fancy, however, that if another Dorian war should ever afterwards come upon us, and a dearth should happen to accompany it, the verse will probably be read accordingly.”
[Book 2, Chapter 54, Section 3]

– Thucydides. History of the Peloponnesian War

Senate CISPA Up For A Vote, Help Stop it!

Posting from the Massachusetts Pirate Party web site.

The Senate will have a final vote on the Cybersecurity Act of 2012 (S 3414) soon.  They just passed the cloture vote for it.  This bill is the Senate version of CISPA, and remains a solution looking for a problem.

Thankfully, the Senate has listened to the outcry over CISPA and has made a bill that better protects our privacy.  However, it still authorizes companies to use cybersecurity as an excuse to engage in monitoring of user data and could prevent users from using privacy-tools such as TOR over their network.

This bill has the support of the White House, so we cannot count on President Obama to veto it.

We need you to tell both Senators to oppose S 3414.   Please call the numbers listed below or fill out their contact forms.  Thanks!

Scott Brown
(202) 224-4543
http://scottbrown.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/emailscottbrown

John Kerry
(202) 224-2742
http://kerry.senate.gov/contact/

Follow up on my guns and government oppression post

In the (generally) Facebook discussion of my Is there an instance where an armed citizenry prevented US government oppression? post, the responses were either of the form:

  1. it is too early to tell (as if 200 years of US history would not give us some useful examples) or
  2. the examples were so small they weren’t in the historical record.

I did find two US historical examples of a group of armed citizens which successfully used firearm violence to counter what they perceived as government oppression:

  1. The violence by Southern whites before the Civil War to get the South to succeed;
  2. The violence by Southern whites during Reconstruction to reestablish the power of the white planter elite.

For the white planter elites and their supporters, they perceived that they were fighting for their liberty from what they thought of as an oppressive Federal government.  However, former slaves, poor whites and most people a hundred years later would doubtless have a far different perspective.

Based on these examples, I believe that guns help authoritarian, elite power and really haven’t moved us closer to a more just society or even kept government from being oppressive.  In the examples above, they have been used to foster oppression.

The larger issue I get from my albeit brief analysis is that when firearms are used by those not in power, then they will be opposed by the larger society by all means necessary (see the examples in the earlier post). When those with firearms do have power, then there isn’t a need to resort to firearms or if they do, then they can use the power of the state to full effect to back them up.

In my mind, the historical examples don’t back up the thesis that an armed citizenry keeps oppressive government at bay, but I am still willing to hear about other examples.

What music have I been listening to?

I sorted at my iTunes list by # of plays and got this top ten play list from the last year:

  1. Ponyo on the Cliff by the Sea
  2. Ponyo on the Cliff by the Sea (Remix)
  3. Not a Love Song by Uh Huh Her
  4. Totoro
  5. Hey Bulldog by The Beatles
  6. Yellow Submarine by The Beatles
  7. All Together Now by The Beatles
  8. Ni Na La by Solas
  9. Explode by Uh Huh Her
  10. Eleanor Rigby by The Beatles

Before you think I am a big Beatles fan, I should point out that seven of the ten songs are ones my daughter chose.  Pulling out the kids songs, my top ten play list for the past year has been:

  1. Not a Love Song by Uh Huh Her
  2. Ni Na La by Solas
  3. Explode by Uh Huh Her
  4. Panic Switch by Silversun Pickups
  5. Common Reaction by Uh Huh Her
  6. Bitch by Republica
  7. Covered by Uh Huh Her
  8. Wait Another Day by Uh Huh Her
  9. Bang Bang Bang by Sohodolls
  10. Sour Times by Portishead

Not really sure what this indicates about me except that I prefer female singers with (marginally) edgy lyrics.  But, then I knew that already.

The musings of Jamie O'Keefe: pirate party activist, geek, father and gamer.