All posts by James O'Keefe

Ecology, Economy, Energy, Government

A Cash for Clunkers Review

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According to Toyota Tops List of Cash-for-Clunkers Winners (NY Times), 690,000 new vehicles were purchased with money from the Cash for Clunkers program.  On average, new cars got 25 miles per gallon (mpg) while "clunkers" got 16 mpg.  If the average person in the US drives 15,000 miles/year, then new cars will save 337.5 gallons of gas a year (937.5 gallons for "clunkers" and 600 gallons for the newer cars).

So did the Cash for Clunkers program pay off?  Lets try a back of the envelope calculation.

If we estimate that the "clunkers", without the program, would have been replaced within five years on average, then the total gas saved would be:

690,000 cars x 337.5 gallons saved per year x 5 years = 1,164,375,000 gallons saved

or about 1.16 billion gallons of gas saved.

Since about $2.9 billion was spent, that means that for every gallon saved, it cost the federal government about $2.49.  Increasing the average replacement time decreases the cost per gallon, while decreasing the replacement time raises the cost per gallon.

With gas costing $2.62 a gallon on 8/24 (see doe.gov), this is a slight savings.  The savings would grow should the price of gas go back to its high point of $4.00 in July 2008 or even higher when peak oil really kicks in.

Some (1 , 2) have estimated the true cost of a gallon of gas to be significantly higher due to such factors as the subsidies the government gives to gas, protecting the oil supply in the Persian Gulf, lost time in traffic and the environmental cost.  Estimates of the true cost of a gallon of gas vary between $5 and $15.  At those prices, Cash for Clunkers program was quite a good investment. 

However, whether the Cash for Clunkers program was as efficient at cutting our oil usage and pollution as other approaches such as home energy efficiency improvements, or increased ride sharing, public transit or bike paths remains to be seen.

Games, Social Justice

Data point: Diversity among Boston-area Tradable Card Gamers

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I took my son and his friend to a Yu-Gi-Oh! sneak-peak and Magic game day at Pandemonium Books & Games this last weekend.  They had fun playing the game with each other, another friend and a few of the other folks there.

One thing I noticed was how the composition of the players both confirmed and challenged the perceptions that such science fiction and fantasy oriented gaming is a white-male only activity.

It was certainly true that the players were overwhelmingly teenagers (or at least in their early 20ies) and of the seventy-five people I counted there, only four were women.

However, the ethic breakdown, albeit from my subjective observation skills and the few conversations I had, was:

8 African descent

28 Asian descent

18 European descent

10 Latino descent

1 Mixed descent

I found the ethnic distribution (though not the gender distribution) pretty refreshing, certainly compared to my work environment and even the Green-Rainbow Party.  While I was clearly in the top 10% in terms of age, I didn't feel much out of place.

I do not know if this data point reflects the true diversity of this group, but I found it interesting nevertheless.

Economy, Social Justice

The rich continue to get richer

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Paul Krugman calls out the latest income inequality numbers from Emmanuel Saez.  The nearly thirty year trend of increasing income inequality got noticeably larger during the Clinton & Bush II years.  And yes, that is the % of income claimed by the wealthiest 1/10000th of the US population.  The wealth values are no doubt even higher.  These values only go up to 2007, but my guess is that 2008 was even higher, and possibly 2009 as well.

Saez07 

If we look at just the top 1%, they claim 23% of all income and followed a similar path as the top 1/100%, though not as radical.  The top 1%, by the way, represents families with an annual income above $398,900 in 2007.  Who says we cannot pay for health care and close the deficit by taxing these folks more.

Download the data and graphs in Excel format.  Table 2 has a nice summary.

Games, Miniatures, When Imagination Fails

Microarmor game: Israel vs. Syria

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The local game club ran a Cold War Commander game last month.  It was Syria vs. Israel 1967 with modern equipment.  Due to a twist in the scenario, the points favored the Syrians who advanced on the Israelis in good order.  Syrian Taskforces 1&2 destroyed most of the Merkavas of Israeli Taskforce 2, while Taskforce 3 flanked the Israelis and routed their support elements without suffering a loss.  You can see pictures of the game on Flickr and as a slideshow.

It was my first time playing Cold War Commander.  CWC seemed to have far too many die rolls for too little effect.  Afterward, one group tried out a small engagement using GHQ's microarmor rules, while the other, including me, tried a smaller CWC game that we played to completion.  While I liked the order system of CWC, with a few mods, I still prefer Fistful of TOWS 2.

Games, Miniatures, When Imagination Fails

ACTA EA/ISA vs. Drakh Game

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We had an ACTA EA/ISA vs Drakh Game at the local game shop.  Since there were two of us, we first ran a small game of two Earth Alliance Chronos Frigates vs. two Drakh Light Raiders.  It took about four or five turns, but we ended with each side with a ship running adrift without crews, the remaining Raider undamaged and the last Chronos ailing.  You can see a picture of the final state here.

For the second game, another joined us and we ran a game where a Drakh taskforce was running from an heavier EA taskforce.  We split the EA taskforce among two of us and I ran the Drakh.  Earth had:

  • 1 Warlock Advanced Destroyer
  • 1 Marathon Cruiser
  • 1 Omega Destroyer
  • 2 ISA Whitestars

The Drakh had:

  • 1 Cruiser
  • 1 Light Cruiser
  • 2 Fast Destroyers
  • 3 Light Raiders

The game began with the Drakh Cruiser and Light Cruiser attempting to high tail it out, while the Light Raiders and the Fast Destroyers turned to engage.  The Marathon bore the brunt of the Raider fire, but managed to weather it.  One of the Raiders went down, and another was heavily damaged.  The Whitestars and other EA ships closed as quickly as they could.

By the second turn, Cruiser and Light Cruiser slowed down to engage the Warlock.  The Raiders ended up out of range of the Marathon, but the Fast Destroyers engaged the Marathon and scored the first Reactor Explosed.  Still the Marathon persevered.  Between the Marathon, the Warlock and the Whitestars, the Destroyers and Raiders went down.  Each of the Fast Destroyers suffered Reactor Explosions and were soon running adrift without a crew, trophies for Earth.  One Raider remained, practically unharmed by the Aurora fighters attacking it.  The Omega was not able to engage any targets.

The game ended there.  The two Drakh cruisers were going to try to outrun the Earthers, but with two thirds of their force gone, their chances look slim.

Pictures of the game are up at Flickr and viewable as a slideshow.

Miniatures, When Imagination Fails

EA Thunderbolts done

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I glued my eight Earth Alliance Thunderbolts to their stands last night.  This proved to be more time consuming than I expected since the holes were too large for the mounting pin on the fighters and often the mount hole went straight through the stand.  This feature required that I hold the fighter until the glue set.  I tried two types of glue, but Crazy glue set faster so I used that even though the bottle kept sealing up.

Still, with the two Aurora Starfurys I did as well, that is enough fighters for the Drakh-EA/ISA game I will be running.  Hopefully, I'll finish the Auroras one evening soon.

Miniatures, When Imagination Fails

Nearly done with Earth Alliance Ships

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I am running an EA/ISA vs Drakh game soon.  While most of my Crusade era EA ships are done, I didn't have any of the fighters.  I am happy to say that I am nearly done with them.  I painted them up and sprayed them with dullcote.  Now I just need to glue them to their stands.  Thankfully, I was able to spray the EA capital ships with dullcote at the same time.

Dullcote does not appear to protect the miniatures as well as I had hoped.  I think I'll need to switch to a stronger clear varnish.

Film

Harry Potter: Less Draco, More Snogging (& Fighting)

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Uncharacteristically for us, we have seen about four first-run movies in June and July. 

The latest was Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince.  I can certainly say that I liked it better than the previous installment of the series.  I finished the 5th book just prior to watching that movie and as a result felt that the movie was a pale imitation of the book.  This go round, with the book firmly in my distant memory, I found that I was able to keep the comparisons to minimum and appreciate it more.  That said the general consensus of my wife, son and I was: 

Less Draco, More Snogging (& Fighting)

I feel for Draco with his dilemma about graduating from a bully and braggart to a cold blooded murderer of one of the most loved characters, but did we need to see his anguish so many times?  Plus, was it really necessary to see Draco with the cabinet: the meeting, an apple, a bird, etc.  Yes, yes we get the point, can we move on now?  If we see a gun, or in this case a cabinet, in act 1, it will be used in act 3, we get it!  Did the director need to waste three minutes of time on the cabinet, when the story completely fails to explain why Ron was so worried about a Quidditch match or why Harry received no punishment for the spell he inflicted on Draco or even get questioned on where he got the spell?  Context, continuity, any of these ringing a bell?

That all said, my wife wanted more snogging, and my son wanted more of a final battle.  I would settle for a plot without loose ends, middles and beginnings and wasted opportunities.  I really hope the final movie(s) prove to be better.

The other three movies are: Ice Age 3, the latest Star Trek movie and Up.  Ice Age 3 was no where near as good as the previous two movies and gave Ellie, the lone female character, very little dialogue.  Star Trek flubbed it on the science, but was pretty exciting and had good characters.  Of the three, Up was clearly the best, with terrific character setup and development, lots of humor and a good story.  That said, Up continued Pixar's trend of few non-white characters.  Come on Pixar, its the 21st century, can't you add more diversity to your characters.

The latest Star Trek flick prompted me to show my wife and son ST: Wrath of Khan and St: The Voyage Home recently.  Khan held up, but The Voyage Home, while talking about saving whales, a subject near and dear to my heart, didn't so well. 

Speaking of whales, the NY Times Magazine has a fantastic article on them.  I highly recommend it.